Category Archives: Observations

There’s Always a 10% Chance

I was just looking over my local forecast and noticed something I’ve never noticed before:

There’s never less than a 10% chance of precipitation. 

Clearly, there are days everyone knows it’s not gonna rain. But it appears it is against weatherman code to ever count it out.

A few possible thoughts behind why this might be:

  1. Anything is possible right? There is always, scientifically, a chance that it could rain.
  2. This is the ultimate CYA. If it rains, you gotta be able to point to at least claiming it was an option, and therefore, it’s best to just never count it out so you’ve always got something to fall back on.
  3. People are lazy, and want things in even, incremental numbers. Why isn’t there ever a 34% chance of rain, or 4% chance? Maybe 10% covers everything from 0-10%.

I can’t clarify why I think this is relevant and/or post-worthy, but it just feels like something worth pointing out. If you can reap some nugget of wisdom from it, please share.