This post supports my earlier post of how caucuses and focus groups are similar.
With the two major kickoff primaries now behind, here are the assumptions I guess we can make based on the amazing data we were able to reap:
- Giuliani’s not a strong candidate (which no one believes)
- The more of a hick you are, the more appealing Huckabee is (we already knew that).
- Hilary – you either love her or hate her (we definitely knew that). And, crying must be a profitable tactic.
- Obama – He’s a steady favorite with the Dems (already knew that).
- Mitt has some issues, but he’s stronger in New England since he’s from there (anyone could figure that out).
- Edwards is always gonna be the “5th wheel” democrat.
- Ron Paul attracts about 10% of the vote, cuz about 10% of all of us are crazy enough to think what the White House needs is wacky logic.
- McCain’s got a chance – this is really the only surprise to me.
- Thompson better not let his contract run out on Law & Order, or whatever TV show he’s on these days.
So, out of it all, I was surprised Giuliani didn’t show a little bit better, and I think it would be wrong for the Republicans to deny their gut on him being a strong nomination based on the primary feedback. And I’m surprised McCain did so well in New Hampshire.
Otherwise, the primaries pretty much just proved what we all already knew.